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We ended our Monday streak of getting three out of the four picks correct, but we are back at it this evening.
We have a sizable slate for a Monday, as 28 of the 30 teams will be in action.
This provides us with more choices in the PrizePicks lobby.
For tonight’s selections, I will be using them in the five-pick Flex Play, which doubles your entry for getting four correct and has a 10x payout for getting all five correct.
Let’s get into the picks.
Kevin Gausman more than 19.5 pitching outs
This is one of the highest pitching out projections I have seen over the last couple of weeks and I still like the more than side when it comes to Gausman.
He’s had an incredible season thus far, posting a 3.76 xERA with a strikeout rate of 32%.
He has struggled with walks a bit recently, but that hasn’t been the case over the entire season (6% BB rate).
Tonight he squares off against the Nationals, who are a bottom-three offense against right-handed pitching and who are very impatient at the plate.
In fact, they average the second fewest pitches per plate appearance. This should keep Gausman’s pitch count low and allow him to pitch deep into the game.
Riley Greene more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
Luis Severino is coming off of a decent outing, but it has been an awful season as a whole.
He owns a 6.51 xERA with a strikeout rate of only 18% and a hard contact rate of 34%.
The Tigers haven’t exactly been the most lethal offense this season, but this is a very good spot for them at home.
Severino has really struggled against left-handed hitters (.430 wOBA allowed), while Greene has racked up a .365 wOBA and a .195 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
If everything breaks our way, Greene could hit this projection in the first inning.
Grayson Rodriguez more than 6.0 strikeouts
This is my favorite projection of the slate.
Rodriguez has a 24% strikeout rate on the season and has racked up at least four strikeouts in nine straight starts.
Now, we are going to need a lot more than four for this projection to hit, but he draws an elite matchup at home against the White Sox.
They are ranked 15th in strikeout rate, 30th in pitches per plate appearance, and 29th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Additionally, Rodriguez will have the platoon advantage in this matchup. The White Sox only have three lefties in their projected lineup.
Juan Soto more than 1.5 total bases
The risk with this pick is that Soto is extremely patient at the plate and he draws three walks.
Unfortunately, walks do not count toward the total bases total.
The Padres have the best matchup on the entire slate. Adam Wainwright has been a great pitcher for many years, but that is no longer the case.
This season, Soto has a 7.82 xERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%.
He has allowed a .442 wOBA to left-handed hitters, while Soto boasts a .391 wOBA and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Bryan Woo more than 4.0 hits allowed
Woo draws a nice matchup at home against the A’s and could end up having a solid outing, but I like the more than four-hits side of this projection.
For starters, the A’s offense is a lot better than it was earlier this season.
They are finally starting to get healthy and Zack Gelof has been incredible since his call-up.
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Woo’s biggest struggle recently has been allowing too many walks and that hopefully won’t be an issue against the A’s.
They like to swing early and often in the count. The more balls put into play by this offense, the more chances we have at base hits.